I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.
But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)
This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.
crossposted to dailyKos
In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, PA, NC, NM, IN, NC and NE; today, CA where the deadline is 3/9
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here . I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.
NC has 53 congressional districts. 34 held by Democrats and 19 by Republicans
The districts held by Democrats are
Confirmed
district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
CA-01 D+10 .42 Thompson No Safe
CA-05 D+14 .06 Matsui Yes Safe
CA-06 D+21 .61 Woolsey Yes Safe
CA-07 D+19 .14 Miller No Safe
CA-08 D+36 .05 Pelosi Yes Safe
CA-09 D+38 .06 Lee Yes Safe
CA-10 D+9 .45 Tauscher Yes Safe
CA-11 R+3 .49 McNerney Yes Somewhat vul
CA-12 D+22 .13 Lantos (Retiring)Yes Prob. safe
CA-13 D+22 .08 Stark No Safe
CA-14 D+18 .49 Eshoo No Safe
CA-15 D+14 .16 Honda No Safe
CA-16 D+16 .18 Lofgren No Safe
CA-17 D+17 .43 Farr Yes Safe
CA-18 D+3 .16 Cardoza No Safe
CA-20 D+5 .16 Costa No Prob. safe
CA-23 D+9 .35 Capps Yes Safe
CA-27 D+13 .22 Sherman No Safe
CA-28 D+25 .24 Berman Only a Green Safe
CA-29 D+12 .05 Schiff Yes Safe
CA-30 D+20 .45 Waxman No Safe
CA-31 D+30 .07 Becerra No Safe
CA-32 D+17 .10 Solis No Safe
CA-33 D+36 .04 Watson No Safe
CA-34 D+23 .17 Roybal-Allard No Safe
CA-35 D+33 .08 Waters No Safe
CA-36 D+11 .21 Harman No (primary) Safe
CA-37 D+27 .06 Richardson No Safe
CA-38 D+20 .19 Napolitano No Safe
CA-39 D+13 .22 Sanchez No Safe
CA-43 D+13 .21 Baca Yes Safe
CA-47 D+5 .15 Sanchez Yes Safe
CA-51 D+7 .12 Filner No Safe
CA-53 D+12 .16 Davis Yes Safe
Those held by Republicans….
CA-02 R+13 .44
CA-02 is the central part of nothernmost CA, between the 1st (on the coast) and the 4th (interior), from the OR border to the outskirts of Sacramento.
Herger, first elected in 1986, has won every election since 1990 with between 61% and 66%.
No apparent challenger
CA-03 R+7 .45
CA-03 is one of the many many strange shaped districts in CA. It includes some of Sacramento’s suburbs, and then a wedge all the way to the NV border, plus some land west of Sacramento.
Lungren, first elected in 1978, but out of the house for a while and re-elected in 2004, won reasonably easily in 2004 and 2006, against underfunded opponents. He got the same votes as Bush did, in 2004. In 2006, he beat Bill Durston 59-38, outraising him by 2-1.
Durston is running again.
CA-04 R+11 .69
CA-04 is the interior part of northern CA
Doolittle, first elected in 1990, is quitting (will he go to jail?) He won easily until 2006, when Charlie Brown lost by only 49-46. There are several Republicans running.
The Democratic challenger is Charlie Brown . Ordinarily, running in an open seat is easier than against an incumbent, but Doolittle was ethically challenged. Could be interesting
CA-19 R+10 .41
CA-19 is just about in the center of the state, including part of Fresno.
Radaonovich, first elected in 1994, has usually won easily. In 2004, he got about as many votes as Bush. In 2006, his challenger was TJ Cox, who was well-funded, but lost 61-39.
There is no confirmed challenger.
CA-21 R+13 .36
CA-21 is CA’s central valley
Nunes, first elected in 2002, has won easily. In 2004, he got 8,000 more votes than Bush
Stephen Haze ran against Nunes in 2006, and lost 67-30. But he’s running again. (Nice to have a bilingual web site!)
CA-22 R+16 .44
CA-22 is an east-west strip of central CA, from the Pacific to Bakersfield and Ridgecrest
McCarthy, first elected in 2006, is the successor to long-time congressman Bill Thomas. He won without serious opposition in the primary or general
There is no confirmed challenger.
CA-24 R+5 .61
CA-24 is just off the coast (separated from the coast by the incredibly narrow CA-23)in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties
Gallegly, first elected in 1986, has won easily, even when his opponents had reasonable money. In 2006, he beat Jill Martinez 62-38, although he outspent her by 6-1.
Martinez is running again, as is Chip Frasier (oy, does that web site need help! There are typos!) and Elliot Maggin
CA-25 R+7 .43
CA-25 is the eastern part of CA, where it angles against NV, most of it is almost uninhabited (the Mojave and Death Valley). It moves inland to include Barstow and Santa Clarita, nearly on the Pacific.
McKeon, first elected in 1992, has won without difficulty.
There are no confirmed challengers
CA-26 R+4 .26
CA-26 is a sort of blobby shaped district mostly San Bernadino county
Dreier, first elected in 1980, has occasionally gotten under 55%, even against poorly financed opponents. In 2006, he got 57% against Cynthia Matthews, despite outspending her by more than 100-1 (Matthews spent only $17,000). This could get interesting
This year, Russ Warner is running; his ActBlue page has already raised almost $200,000. Also running is Hoyt Hilsman (nice website, with video and stuff).
CA-26 R+8 .22
CA-40 is a sort of upside down U-shaped district in Southern CA, including Fullerton and Orange.
Royce, first elected in 1992, has gotten roughly 2/3 of the vote in every election since 1994. In 2004, he did considerably better than Bush
There are two declared challengers: Florice Hoffman (who lost in 2006 and who may not be running….) and Christina Avalos who seems like a real progressive (if someone knows her, tell her to add a donation link on her website….)
CA-41 R+9 .33
CA-41 is a wedge shaped district, mostly San Bernadino county. Although it extends to the NV and AZ border, most of the people are in the SW corner, in towns like Redlands, Highland, and Apple Valley.
Lewis, first elected in 1978, is retiring in a cloud of ethics. There are at least 3 Democrats running:
Rita Ramirez Dean
Tim Prince
Pat Morris
CA-42 R+10 .39
CA-42 is shaped roughly like a fat T, with the NE at Chino, the NW at La Habla, and the S at Mission Viejo
Miller, first elected in 1998, has won easily the last few times, in 2006 he was unopposed, in 2004 he did considerably better than Bush.
But, now, he’s under investigation by the FBI .. uh oh.
And he has two challengers:
Kossack CanYouBeAngryandStillDream , whose real name is Ron Shepston and Ed Chau
CA-44 R+6 .39
CA-44 runs north from San Clemente to Riverside.
Calvert, first elected in 1992, has won fairly easily, the last three times against Louis Vandenberg, who had almost no money.
Vandenberg is running again, as is Bill Hedrick . It’s becoming evident that Calvert is a crook, so maybe we have a better chance; not only was he involved in shady land deals, but he was arrested in a car with a mostly unclad female who had her head in his lap (see his arrest record ). He said they were ‘just talking’.
CA-45 R+3 .37
CA-45 is an east-west strip near the southern border of CA, running from AZ almost to the Pacific
Bono, first elected in 1998, has won easily, even when, as in 2006, her opponent raises considerable funds.
At least two Democrats are running: Paul Clay and David Hunsicker.
CA-46 R+6 .30
CA-46 is coastal CA, near the town of Long Beach, it consists of two main parts connected by a tiny strip of land (which is in CA-36 and 37), and also of two islands.
Rohrabacher, first elected in 1988, has won fairly easily since.
His opponent in 2008 is Steve Blount
CA-48 R+8 .46
CA-48 is more or less centerd on Irvine, and includes Newport Beach and Laguna Niguel
Campbell, first elected in 2005, won easily in 2006, beating Steve Young 60-37. Campbell raised $2 million to Young’s $400,000.
Young is running again. Steve has written a bunch of diaries on dailyKos
CA-49 R+10 .41
CA-49 is northern San Diego and southern Riverside counties.
Issa, first elected in 2000, has won easily against underfunded opponents.
His opponent in 2008 is Robert Hamilton
CA-50 R+5 .41
CA-50 is a triangle in the SW corner of CA, entirely surrounding CA-53, which is the center of San Diego
Bilbray, was congressman from 1995-2001, then a lobbyist, now a congressman again, after Duke Cunningham left in ignominy. In 2006, he beat Florence Busby twice; in the second, regular election, he won 53-43, despite Busby spending even more money than he did ($3.5 million to $2.6 million).
His opponent in 2008 is Nick Leibham .
CA-52 R+9 .44
CA-52 includes suburbs of San Diego and the mountains and dessert interior.
Hunter, first elected in 1980, is retiring. He won easily.
There are a whole bunch of people running. Democrats include:
Mike Lumpkin
Jim Hester
Vickie Butcher
Summary:
Only one Democratic seat is in any real danger.
Several Republican seats are: CA-04, CA-24, CA-46, and maybe CA-50 and CA-52
in CA is None, thanks to the legislature’s
incumbent protection racketbi-partisan gerrymander. The next likeliest outcome is a pickup in CA-26 (David Dreier’s seat). At R+4, this is the second most Democratic seat still held by a Republican (after CA-45 at R+3). The district’s demographics are changing rapidly (2006 estimate says white percentage dropped below 50% [to 49%], and Hispanic percentage is up to 27%, in what was gerrymandered to be the San Gabriel Valley’s ‘white’ seat). Dreier is disliked by the paleocons (immigration) and the theocons (teh gay), who would be happy to see him disappear under the bus. And Russ Warner, like you said, is raising money at a prodigious clip.Thanks for another excellent entry.
David Dreier (CA-26) is an interesting case. Dreier, a veteran protege of Newt Gingrich was a real power in the House rising to be Chairman of the Rules Committee. Although Dreier has an extremely conservative voting record, his personal life is well “very Republican.” Dreier was outed as a closeted gay man by Democratic opponent (and open lesbian) Cynthia Matthews in 2004. The result was a narrower than expected win and a sudden brake on a powerful congressional career. He was one of the half dozen most pwerful Republicans in the House but no longer holds that status.
Russ Warner was the expected opponent for Dreier but lost a lackluster primary to Cynthia Matthews for the 2006 Democratic nomination. There were some rumors that Dreier played dirty pool to get a weaker opponent but nothing much surfaced.
Dreier just looks like a future lobbyist. He annually wins the award for the best dressed congressman. He’s smart, polished and organized. The inference is certainly that he has sold out his own interests and beliefs on numerous occassions. Whether that all adds up to trouble for a guy who still has a sizeable campaign bankroll is unclear but there is enough mud that a sturdy challenge could dislodge him.
Mary Bono recently wed Florida congressman Connie Mack. At some point, I would suspect that she will give up her seat and settle full-time in Florida rather than trying to run two households on two different coasts. Mack gave up his first wife, hails from a safer district, and probably has aspirations for higher office. Bono seems the more likely to yield her seat. This may not be a hot seat in 2008 but could be in 2010 or 2012. The smart move for a Democrat might be to introduce himself/herself to the district with a run this year.